De nieuwe huizenbubbel

NEW YORK – Men is het er algemeen over eens dat een serie in elkaar klappende huizenbubbels de mondiale financiële crisis van 2008/2009 en de daarop volgende zware recessie veroorzaakten, Terwijl de Verenigde Staten het bekendste voorbeeld zijn, veroorzaakte een combinatie van lakse regulering en supervisie van banken en lage rentetarieven gelijksoortige bubbels in het Verenigd Koninkrijk, Spanje, Ierland, IJsland en Dubai.

Nu, vijf jaar later, zijn er opnieuw tekens van schuim, als niet al regelrechte bubbels zijn, op de huizenmarkten van Zwitserland, Zweden, Noorwegen, Finland, Frankrijk, Duitsland, Canada, Australië, Nieuw Zeeland en, terug voor een herhaling, het Verenigd Koninkrijk (Ok, Londen). In de opkomende economieën verschijnen er bubbels in Hong Kong, Singapore, China en Israël en in grote stedelijke centra in Turkije, India, Indonesië en Brazilië.

Tekens dat de huizenprijzen op bubbelgebied komen zijn onder andere snel stijgende huizenprijzen, hoge en stijgende prijs-inkomen ratio’s en hoge niveaus van hypotheekschuld als gedeelte van de schulden van huishoudens. In de meeste ontwikkelde economieën worden de bubbels opgeblazen door zeer lage korte en lange termijn rentetarieven. Gegeven een lusteloze bbp-groei, hoge werkloosheid en lage inflatie stuwt de golf van liquiditeit, die gegenereerd wordt door conventionele en onconventionele monetaire verruiming, de prijzen van activa op, om te beginnen de huizenprijzen.

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