回到地产泡沫

纽约—人们都说,是一系列房地产泡沫的崩盘触发了2008—2009全球金融危机及其后的严重衰退。尽管美国才是最众所周知的例子,但松散的银行监管和监督和低政策利率在英国、西班牙、爱尔兰、冰岛和迪拜也助长了类似的泡沫。

如今,五年过去了,起泡甚至严重泡沫的迹象又出现在瑞士、瑞典、挪威、芬兰、法国、德国、加拿大、澳大利亚、新西兰,英国(好吧,伦敦)则是卷土重来。在新兴市场,泡沫出现于香港、新加坡、中国大陆和以色列,以及土耳其、印度、印尼和巴西的中心城市。

新兴市场经济体的情况更加复杂。人均收入较高的某些经济体——比如以色列、香港和新加坡——通胀较低,希望维持低政策利率以防止对主要货币汇率升值。其他国家受困于高通胀(甚至高于央行目标,土耳其、印度、印尼和巴西就是如此)。在中国和印度,储蓄正都用来买房了,因为金融抑制让家庭没有其他资产可以用于对冲通胀。许多新兴市场经济体的快速城镇化也助长了房价,因为需求超过了供给。

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