Tim Brinton

El panorama cambiante del riesgo mundial

NUEVA YORK – Los riesgos económicos, financieros y geopolíticos del mundo están cambiando. Algunos de ellos presentan ahora una menor probabilidad, aunque no hayan desaparecido del todo. Otros están volviéndose más probables e importantes.

Hace uno o dos años, seis riesgos principales estaban en el centro del escenario:

  • Una desintegración de la zona del euro (incluida la salida de Grecia y la pérdida de acceso a los mercados de capitales para Italia o España o las dos).
  • Una crisis fiscal en los Estados Unidos (debida a nuevas luchas políticas sobre el límite de la deuda y otro cierre de la Administración).
  • Una crisis de la deuda pública en el Japón (pues la combinación de recesión, deflación y déficits elevados aumentó la relación entre la deuda pública y el PIB).
  • Deflación en muchas economías avanzadas.
  • Guerra entre Israel y el Irán por la supuesta proliferación nuclear iraní.
  • Una mayor desintegración del orden regional en Oriente Medio.

Ahora esos riesgos se han reducido. Gracias al discurso relativo a “hacer lo que sea necesario” del Presidente del Banco Central Europeo, Mario Draghi, a las nuevas facilidades financieras para estabilizar a los deudores soberanos con problemas y al comienzo de una unión bancaria, la zona del euro ya no está al borde del desplome. En los Estados Unidos, el Presidente Barack Obama y los republicanos del Congreso han acordado una tregua de momento para evitar la amenaza de otro cierre de la Administración por la necesidad de aumentar el límite de la deuda.

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