Абэномика, по-Европейски

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – Два года назад, выборы Синдзо Абэ на пост премьер-министра Японии привели к появлению “Абэномики,” плана, состоящего из трех частей, по спасению экономики от беговой дорожки стагнации и дефляции. Три компонента Абэномики – или “стрелы” - составляют массовую денежную стимуляцию в виде количественного и качественного послабления (QQE, англ. quantitative and qualitative easing), в том числе больше кредитов для частного сектора; краткосрочный финансовый стимул, за которым следует консолидация по сокращению дефицита и сделать государственный долг устойчивым; и структурные реформы, чтобы усилить сторону предложения и потенциал роста.

В настоящее время – на основе недавней речи, президента Европейского Центрального Банка Марио Драги в Джексон Хоул кажется, что ЕЦБ имеет аналогичный план для еврозоны. Первый элемент “Драгиномики” - ускорение структурных реформ, необходимых для повышения потенциального роста производства еврозоны. Прогресс таких жизненно важных реформ, был разочарованием, с большими усилиями проведенные, в некоторых странах (Испании и Ирландии, например) и меньшими в других (Италии и Франции, чтобы цитировать лишь две страны).

Но Драги теперь признает, что медленное, неравномерное и анемичное восстановление еврозоны отражает не только структурные проблемы, но и циклические факторы, которые зависят больше от совокупного спроса, чем от совокупных ограничений поставок. Таким образом, меры по увеличению спроса также необходимы.

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