Les Abenomics version européenne

NEW YORK – Il y a deux ans, l’élection de Shinzo Abe au poste de Premier ministre du Japon conduisait à l’élaboration des « Abenomics, » programme en trois parties destiné à extraire l’économie d’une difficile situation de stagnation et de déflation. Les trois composantes des Abenomics – les fameuses « flèches » – consistent en une relance monétaire massive sous forme d’assouplissement quantitatif et qualitatif (QQE), impliquant davantage de crédit pour le secteur privé, en une relance budgétaire à court terme suivie d’une consolidation censée réduire les déficits et rendre viable la dette publique, ainsi qu’en réformes structurelles destinées à renforcer l’économie de l’offre et la croissance potentielle.

Voici désormais que la BCE – si l’on en croit le récent discours de Jackson Hole prononcé par son président Mario Draghi – semble envisager un programme similaire pour la zone euro. Le premier pilier des « Draghinomics » consisterait ainsi en une accélération des réformes structurelles nécessaires à la dynamisation du potentiel de croissance de la production dans la zone euro. Les progrès accomplis autour de ces réformes cruciales se sont jusqu’à présent révélés décevants, certains États (parmi lesquels l’Espagne et l’Irlande) fournissant davantage d’efforts que d’autres (comme l’Italie et la France, pour n’en citer que deux).

Or, Mario Draghi a désormais admis que la reprise lente, déséquilibrée et anémique de la zone euro reflétait non seulement un certain nombre de difficultés structurelles, mais également l’existence de facteurs cycliques dépendant davantage de la demande globale que des contraintes liées à l’offre globale. Ainsi les mesures destinées à accroitre la demande sont-elles également nécessaires.

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