Abenomics Europese stijl

NEW YORK – Twee jaar geleden leidde de verkiezing van Shinzo Abe tot premier van Japan tot de komst van ‘Abenomics’, een driedelig plan om de economie uit een tredmolen van stagnatie en deflatie te redden. De drie componenten (of ‘pijlen’) van Abenomics bestaan uit: een massale monetaire stimulans in de vorm van kwantitatieve en kwalitatieve versoepeling (QQE), die onder meer bestaat uit meer krediet voor de privésector; een fiscale stimulans op de korte termijn, gevolgd door consolidatie om tekorten te verminderen en de staatsschuld houdbaar te maken; en structurele hervormingen om de kant van het aanbod en de potentiele groei te versterken.

Het lijkt er nu (afgaand op de recente Jackson Hole speech van de president van de Europese Centrale Bank Mario Draghi) op dat de ECB een zelfde plan in petto heeft voor de eurozone. Het eerste element van ‘Draghinomics’ is het versnellen van de structurele hervormingen die nodig zijn om de potentiele opbrengstgroei van de eurozone aan te jagen. De vooruitgang in zulke cruciale hervormingen is teleurstellend geweest, waarbij er meer inspanningen zijn verricht in sommige landen (bijvoorbeeld Ierland en Spanje) en minder in andere (Italië en Frankrijk om er maar twee te noemen).

Maar Draghi erkent nu dat het langzame, ongelijke en armoedige herstel van de eurozone niet alleen structurele problemen weerspiegelt, maar ook cyclische factoren die meer afhangen van de totale vraag dan van beperkingen van het totale aanbod. Dus zijn er ook maatregelen nodig om de vraag te vergroten.

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