Economics

Abenomics Europese stijl

Aug 31, 2014 Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – Twee jaar geleden leidde de verkiezing van Shinzo Abe tot premier van Japan tot de komst van ‘Abenomics’, een driedelig plan om de economie uit een tredmolen van stagnatie en deflatie te redden. De drie componenten (of ‘pijlen’) van Abenomics bestaan uit: een massale monetaire stimulans in de vorm van kwantitatieve en kwalitatieve versoepeling (QQE), die onder meer bestaat uit meer krediet voor de privésector; een fiscale stimulans op de korte termijn, gevolgd door consolidatie om tekorten te verminderen en de staatsschuld houdbaar te maken; en structurele hervormingen om de kant van het aanbod en de potentiele groei te versterken.

Het lijkt er nu (afgaand op de recente Jackson Hole speech van de president van de Europese Centrale Bank Mario Draghi) op dat de ECB een zelfde plan in petto heeft voor de eurozone. Het eerste element van ‘Draghinomics’ is het versnellen van de structurele hervormingen die nodig zijn om de potentiele opbrengstgroei van de eurozone aan te jagen. De vooruitgang in zulke cruciale hervormingen is teleurstellend geweest, waarbij er meer inspanningen zijn verricht in sommige landen (bijvoorbeeld Ierland en Spanje) en minder in andere (Italië en Frankrijk om er maar twee te noemen).

Maar Draghi erkent nu dat het langzame, ongelijke en armoedige herstel van de eurozone niet alleen structurele problemen weerspiegelt, maar ook cyclische factoren die meer afhangen van de totale vraag dan van beperkingen van het totale aanbod. Dus zijn er ook maatregelen nodig om de vraag te vergroten.

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Nouriel Roubini

Writing for PS since 2007
174 Commentaries

Nouriel Roubini, Professor Emeritus of Economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, is Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team, CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, Co-Founder of TheBoomBust.com, and author of MegaThreats: Ten Dangerous Trends That Imperil Our Future, and How to Survive Them (Little, Brown and Company, 2022). He is a former senior economist for international affairs in the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton Administration and has worked for the International Monetary Fund, the US Federal Reserve, and the World Bank. His website is NourielRoubini.com, and he is the host of NourielToday.com.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

Lawrence Michael Sep 5, 2014

Let us look at some basics that some seem to touch upon but not articulate. For example the idea that an economy with a GDP of 50 trillion showing a 3% increase is doing worse than an economy with a GDP of 50 million showing an increase of 7% is obviously fallacious as anyone can see but usually read that fallacy in both reports as well as analytical pieces as this. The global economy is complex with any nth number of factors affecting the various players - with the finite nature of economy, human population and the planet earth being the three corner stones of recognitions one seems to easily escape in making such obvious fallacies so readable analytic pieces. The other aspect being - structural factors with attrition factors (they can be internal - citing Chandigarh as a city in Northern India as one sterling example of such attrition that show as degradation to the original idea as well as reality. They can be external - a bunch of simians landing up at NASA's Hubble Telescope site and operating it too). Both these factors affect the nature of supply & demand in both the senses: external as well as internal including the human/'cultural' factor that remains central to every human exercise and more so with economics. Globalization merely makes it more complex - with what may or can be controlled or even are! The word 'cultural' in quotes because we all do continuing debating over it including the anti-cultural that even then seek to claim the word culture without intending any pun. Keeping certain basic factors in mind does help in quantifying data more correctly than before, even when qualifying it as data always is both its basic types once again.
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Gunnar Eriksson Sep 3, 2014

Remember that increased wages for ordinary people is a vital part of the prescription.
There is no lack of capital but it is only looking for rent. Tax idle and speculative capital for public investment
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Mukesh Adenwala Sep 2, 2014

To say the least, this is disappointing analysis. Established and forgotten wisdom claims that "you can pull a string but cannot push it." Lack of demand is on account of lack of employment, which in turn has been caused by technological advances - there is eminent argument that we are moving towards zero marginal costs. It has also been eminently argued that quantitative easing (or even QQE) pursued endlessly has no clear benefits. To hope that Animal Spirits would take care of the rest and till the time inflation becomes a problem we should continue to disregard it, fails to make sense. Perhaps it shows that in order not to admit another great depression, we continue to advocate and follow policies that have not worked these last six years.
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Willard Hoffer Sep 1, 2014

The solution to the debt problem is not more debt! The west has lived beyond its means for far too long and now it is time to suck it up and suffer the consequences.
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Zsolt Hermann Aug 31, 2014

It is interesting that the author recommends a policy, that by the latest measures and reports is failing in Japan.
It seems that any "gains" the "arrows" produced were simply cosmetic without any real life gains or improvements.

Which is understandable since we can try to resuscitate, kick, repaint a dead horse but even if we ourselves try to carry it beyond reason, it is still a dead horse.

There is no solution for the stubbornly pushed constant quantitative growth economic model and lifestyle in a vast natural system which is built on general balance and homeostasis.

We cannot try to build an artificial human bubble based on excessive, exploitative over-consumption when the system we evolved from and still exist in is based on natural necessities and available resources.

We cannot keep on competing with each other, succeeding at the expense of others and life, existence is based on mutually complementing cooperation, primarily working for the benefit, sustainable existence of the collective and only after for ourselves.

We are very unique creatures, we are truly above any other lifeforms with a conscious mind capable of critical assessment, even self-change, but still we are only part of the system.

We are not here to invent, create, establish a special human habitat above or against nature.
We are here to adapt to the system in a conscious, self-aware,m dynamic way.

Thus first we have to learn, understand the system, and then change ourselves, humanity according to it.
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Paul A. Myers Aug 31, 2014

It seems to me that the Hollande government of France is proposing just this sort of program. The missing piece is concerted action by the ECB at the eurozone level.
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