欧风安倍经济学

纽约—两年前,安倍晋三当选为日本首相,启动了被称为“安倍经济学”的三管齐下计划,试图让日本经济走出滞涨和通缩困局。安倍经济学的三个组成部分——或三支“箭”——包括以量化和定性宽松(QQE)为形式的大规模货币刺激(包括向私人部门提供更多信用);短期财政刺激以及随后的整合以降低赤字、使公共债务可持续;以及旨在强化供给面和潜在增长的结构性改革。

根据欧洲央行行长德拉吉在杰克森霍尔(Jackson Hole)的最新讲话,欧洲央行也为欧元区准备了类似的计划。“德拉吉经济学”的第一个要素是加速必要的结构性改革以提振欧元区潜在产出增长。这些关键改革方面的进展一直令人失望,有的国家用力多(如西班牙和爱尔兰),有的国家用力少(意大利和法国是其中之二)。

但德拉吉现在认识到,欧元区复苏之所以缓慢、不平衡又无力,其原因并不只限于结构性问题,还有周期性因素,而对于周期性因素,更重要的是总需求而不是总供给约束。因此,增加需求的措施也是必不可少的。

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