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亚洲的全球原爆点

纽约—现时代,最大的地缘政治风险不是以色列和伊朗的核扩散冲突。也不是如今从马格里布一路延伸到兴都库什山的动荡带的长期失序风险。甚至也不是俄罗斯和西方在乌克兰问题上陷入第二次冷战的风险。

当然,所有这些都是严重风险;但没有一个可以与保证中国和平崛起的挑战相比。正因如此,日本和中国官员和分析师将两国双边关系比作一战前夕的英德关系的消息尤其令人揪心。

中国及其数个邻国之间就争议岛屿和领海的纠纷(始于与日本的冲突)仅仅是冰山一角。随着中国日益成为经济强国,它越来越依赖航路进口能源、其他投入品和商品。这意味着它需要发展一直远洋海军保证中国经济不会因为海陆被扼而受到掣肘。

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