Langzame groei op korte termijn

NEW YORK – De wereldeconomie had weer een moeilijk jaar in 2013. De geavanceerde economieën lieten weer een groei beneden de trend zien, met een output die gemiddeld 1% per jaar steeg, terwijl veel opkomende markten met een vertraging te maken kregen met een groei beneden de trend van 4,8%. Wat heeft 2014, na een jaar met een beneden gemiddelde groei van 2,9%, voor ons in petto?

Het goede nieuws is dat de economische prestaties zowel in geavanceerde economieën als opkomende markten op bescheiden wijze beter zullen worden. De geavanceerde economieën, die profiteren van een pijnlijke vijf jaar van deleveraging van de private sector (huishoudens, banken en niet-financiële firma’s), een kleinere fiscal drag (met uitzondering van Japan) en het vasthouden aan aangepast monetair beleid, zullen met een jaarlijkse snelheid richting de 1,9% groeien.

Bovendien zullen z.g. tail risks (schokken met een kleine waarschijnlijkheid maar een grote impact) minder belangrijk zijn in 2014. De dreiging bijvoorbeeld van een implosie van de eurozone, nog een government shutdown of strijd over het schuldenplafond in de VS, een harde landing van China of een oorlog tussen Israël en Iran over nucleaire proliferatie, zal veel meer getemperd worden.

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