Pomalý růst a nižší krajní rizika

NEW YORK – Globální ekonomika si v roce 2013 prožila další náročný rok. Růst vyspělých ekonomik se nadále držel pod úrovní trendu a výstup přibýval průměrným ročním tempem kolem 1 %, zatímco řada rozvíjejících se trhů zaznamenala zpomalení na 4,8% růst pod úrovní trendu. Co pro světovou ekonomiku po roce podměrečného 2,9% globálního růstu chystá rok 2014?

Dobrou zprávou je, že ve vyspělých ekonomikách i na rozvíjejících se trzích se mírně zvýší hospodářská výkonnost. Vyspělé ekonomiky, těžící z pěti let bolestivého snižování zadluženosti soukromého sektoru (domácností, bank a nefinančních firem), slabší fiskální brzdy (s výjimkou Japonska) a nadále držených vstřícných měnových politik, porostou ročním tempem kolem 1,9 %.

Nadto budou v roce 2014 méně vyčnívat takzvaná mezní rizika (nízká pravděpodobnost, šoky s obrovskými důsledky). Mnohem tlumenější bude například hrozba zhroucení eurozóny, dalšího ustrnutí státní správy či zápolení o dluhový strop ve Spojených státech, tvrdého přistání v Číně či války mezi Izraelem a Íránem kvůli šíření jaderných zbraní.

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