慢增长和短尾

纽约—2013年,全球经济度过了又一个困难的年头。发达经济体的增长仍低于趋势增长率,产出增长平均年率为1%左右,而许多新兴市场则经历了减速,增长率降至趋势率以下的4.8%。全球增长只有2.9%。2014年全球经济会怎样?

好消息是发达经济体和新兴市场的经济表现都会略有好转。发达经济体将从经历了五年的痛苦的私人部门去杠杆化(家庭、银行和非金融企业)、财政拖累减小(日本除外)以及权宜性货币政策的延续中获得好处,增长年率将接近1.9%。

此外,所谓的尾部风险(概率低、冲击大)在2014年将有所减小。比如,欧元区崩溃、美国再次爆发政府关门和债务上限争论、中国出现硬着陆、以色列和伊朗因核扩散问题开战等威胁将比2013年小得多。

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