Проблемы на рынках развивающихся стран

ЛАГОС – Финансовый кризис, сразивший страны с развивающимися экономиками весной прошлого года после «истерики ослабления» в политике количественного смягчения Федеральной резервной системы вернулся с удвоенной силой. На этот раз причиной было стечение нескольких событий: валютный кризис в Аргентине, где власти остановили свое вмешательство в валютные рынки, чтобы предотвратить потерю валютных резервов, слишком слабые экономические данные из Китая, а также стойкая политическая неопределенность и нестабильность в Турции, Украине и Таиланде.

Этот миниатюрный идеальный шторм в странах с развивающимися рынками вскоре передался на фондовые рынки стран с развитой экономикой, через антипатию к рискам у многих международных инвесторов. Но непосредственный инициатор этих давлений не следует путать с их глубокими причинами: многие развивающиеся рынки находятся в настоящей беде.

В этот список входят Индия, Индонезия, Бразилия, Турция и Южная Африка: так называемая «Хрупкая Пятерка», потому что все из них имеют два идентичных налогово-бюджетных и дефицитных счета, а также падение темпов роста, показатель инфляции выше целевого и политическую неопределенность в связи с предстоящими законодательными и президентскими выборами в этом году. Но пять иных значимых стран - Аргентина, Венесуэла, Украина, Венгрия, и Таиланд - также уязвимы. Политические и избирательные риски можно найти во всех из них, широкую фискальную политику во многих, а рост внешних дисбалансов и суверенный риск лишь в некоторых.

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