Die Schwierigkeiten der Schwellenländer

LAGOS – Die finanziellen Turbulenzen, in die die Schwellenländer im vergangenen Frühling nach der Ankündigung der US-Notenbank geraten waren, mit dem so genannten „Tapering“ zu beginnen, also der allmählichen Reduzierung ihres Programms zur Quantitativen Lockerung, sind mit voller Kraft zurückgekehrt. Dieses Mal war eine Verkettung mehrerer Umstände der Auslöser: eine Währungskrise in Argentinien, wo die Behörden aufgehört haben in die Devisenmärkte einzugreifen, um den Verlust von Währungsreserven abzuwenden, schwächere Wirtschaftsdaten aus China und anhaltende politische Unsicherheit und Unruhen in der Türkei, in der Ukraine und in Thailand.

Dieser perfekte Sturm im Miniaturformat, der sich in den Schwellenmärkten zusammengebraut hat, ist durch die Risikoaversion internationaler Anleger schon bald auf die Aktienmärkte der Industrieländer übertragen worden. Doch der unmittelbare Auslöser des Drucks, der sich aufgebaut hat, sollte nicht mit seinen tieferen Ursachen verwechselt werden: Viele Schwellenländer stecken ernsthaft in Schwierigkeiten.

Auf dieser Liste stehen Indien, Indonesien, Brasilien, die Türkei und Südafrika – die „Fragilen Fünf“ genannt, weil alle ein Zwillingsdefizit aufweisen, also sowohl ein Haushalts- als auch ein Leistungsbilanzdefizit, sinkende Wachstumsraten, zu hohe Inflation und politische Unsicherheit durch in diesem Jahr bevorstehende Parlaments- und/oder Präsidentschaftswahlen. Allerdings gibt es fünf weitere wichtige Länder – Argentinien, Venezuela, Ukraine, Ungarn und Thailand –, die ebenfalls anfällig sind. Politische und/oder wahlbedingte Risiken finden sich in jedem dieser Länder, eine lockere Geldpolitik in vielen und wachsende Zahlungsbilanzungleichgewichte und ein Länderrisiko in einigen von ihnen.

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