Het probleem van de opkomende markten

LAGOS – De financiële opschudding die de economieën van de opkomende markten afgelopen lente trof is, na de ‘afbouwwoede’ van de Federal Reserve van de VS van het beleid van quantitative-easing (QE, ofwel kwantitatieve versoepeling), in alle hevigheid terug. Dit maal was de oorzaak een samenloop van verschillende omstandigheden; een valutacrisis in Argentinië, waar de overheid stopte met interveniëren in de markt voor buitenlandse valuta om het verlies van buitenlandse reserves te voorkomen; slechtere economische cijfers uit China en voortdurende politieke onzekerheid en onrust in Turkije, Oekraïne en Thailand.

Deze mini-tsunami in de opkomende markten werd, via de risico aversie van internationale investeerders, snel overgedragen op de aandelenmarkten van de geavanceerde economieën. Maar de onmiddellijke aanleiding voor deze spanningen moet niet verward worden met hun diepere oorzaak; veel opkomende markten zitten echt in de problemen.

De lijst omvat India, Indonesië, Brazilië, Turkije en Zuid-Afrika, ook wel ‘de fragiele vijf’ genoemd, omdat ze allemaal zowel begrotingstekorten als tekorten op hun rekening-courant hebben, een inflatie boven het streefcijfer en er politieke onzekerheid is door aankomende parlements- en /of presidentsverkiezingen dit jaar. Maar ook vijf andere beduidende landen – Argentinië, Venezuela, Oekraïne, Hongarije en Thailand – zijn kwetsbaar. In al deze landen zijn er politieke en/ of electorale risico’s, veel hebben een los fiscaal beleid en sommige stijgende externe onevenwichtigheden en landenrisico’s.

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