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新兴市场的麻烦

拉各斯—既美联储关于其量化宽松(QE)政策的“收回之怒”(taper tantrum)后,去年春天新兴市场金融动荡遭到了金融动荡的打击。这可以说是金融动荡的逆袭。这一次的触发因素是多起事件的合力:阿根廷货币危机——当局不再干预外汇市场以阻止外汇储备流失;中国经济数据趋弱;以及土耳其、乌克兰和泰国政治不确定和动乱迟迟得不到消除。

这场新兴市场的迷你完美风暴很快就通过国际投资者的风险厌恶心理传导到了发达经济体股市。但不可把这些压力的直接原因与其深层根源相混淆。深层根源在于新兴市场陷入了真正的麻烦之中。

麻烦名单包括印度、印尼、巴西、土耳其和南非——所谓的“脆弱五国”,因为这些国家都面临着财政和经常项目双重赤字、增长率下降、通胀高于目标以及今年因为即将进行立法和/或总统选举而发生的政治不确定性。但其他五个大国——阿根廷、委内瑞拉、乌克兰、匈牙利和泰国——也十分脆弱。这些国家也都存在政治和/或选举风险,大部分存在宽松财政政策,一些存在日益加剧的外部失衡和主权风险。

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