La autocomplacencia racional de los mercados

NUEVA YORK – Una paradoja cada vez más obvia ha hecho su aparición este año en los mercados financieros mundiales. Si bien los riesgos geopolíticos –el conflicto entre Rusia y Ucrania, el surgimiento del Estado Islámico y la creciente agitación en todo Oriente Medio, las disputas territoriales de China con sus vecinos, y ahora las protestas masivas en Hong Kong y el riesgo de una ofensiva– se han multiplicado, los mercados han mantenido un perfil alcista, cuando no decididamente burbujeante.

De hecho, los precios del petróleo han estado cayendo en vez de subir. Los mercados mundiales de acciones, en general, han alcanzado nuevos máximos. Y los mercados de crédito muestran bajos diferenciales, mientras que el rendimiento de los bonos a largo plazo ha caído en la mayoría de las economías avanzadas.

Es cierto, los mercados financieros en las economías con problemas –por ejemplo, los mercados rusos monetario, de acciones y de bonos– se han visto negativamente afectados, pero el contagio más generalizado que suelen engendrar las tensiones geopolíticas hacia los mercados financieros mundiales no se han materializado.

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