Die rationale Selbstgefälligkeit der Märkte

NEW YORK – Im Lauf dieses Jahres hat sich an den globalen Finanzmärkten ein zunehmend offensichtliches Paradoxon herausgebildet. Obwohl immer mehr geopolitische Risiken hinzugekommen sind – der Konflikt zwischen Russland und der Ukraine, das Aufkommen des „Islamischen Staates“ und zunehmende Verwerfungen im Nahen Osten, Chinas territoriale Streitigkeiten mit seinen Nachbarn und nun Massendemonstrationen in Hongkong und das Risiko einer Niederschlagung der Proteste – ist es an den Märkten weiterhin lebhaft, wenn nicht sogar überschäumend zugegangen.

Die Ölpreise sind tatsächlich gesunken, nicht gestiegen. Die globalen Aktienmärkte haben, im Großen und Ganzen, neue Höchststände erreicht. Und die Risikoaufschläge (Spreads) an den Kreditmärkten sind gering, während langfristige Anleiherenditen in den meisten Industrienationen gesunken sind.

Ja, die Finanzmärkte in krisengeschüttelten Ländern – so etwa die russischen Devisen-, Aktien- und Anleihemärkte – sind unter Druck geraten. Doch die allgemeinere Ansteckung globaler Finanzmärkte, die geopolitische Spannungen normalerweise zur Folge haben, ist nicht eingetreten.

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