L'indifférence toute rationnelle des marchés

NEW YORK – Les marchés financiers mondiaux illustrent cette année un paradoxe de plus en plus manifeste. Bien que les facteurs de risque géopolitique (le conflit entre la Russie et l'Ukraine, la montée de l'Etat islamique et les troubles au Moyen-Orient, les conflits territoriaux entre la Chine et ses voisins et maintenant les manifestations de masse à Hong Kong et le risque de leur répression) soient de plus en plus nombreux, les marchés connaissent une activité soutenue, presque au bord de l'ébullition.

Le prix du pétrole ne monte plus, il chute. Les Bourses mondiales atteignent de nouveaux sommets. L'écart de crédit [credit spread] est faible, tandis que le rendement des obligations à long terme a chuté dans la plupart des pays avancés.

Néanmoins, les marchés financiers des pays en difficulté (par exemple la devise de la Russie, sa Bourse et son marché obligataire) sont affectés par le contexte international. Mais contrairement à ce qui se passe généralement, les tensions géopolitiques n'ont pas fait tache d'huile sur l'ensemble des marchés financiers.

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