Racionální nevzrušenost trhů

NEW YORK – Na globálních finančních trzích letos vyvstal paradox, který je čím dál zřetelnější. Množí se geopolitická rizika – rusko-ukrajinský konflikt, vzestup Islámského státu a sílící rozvrat napříč Blízkým východem, územní spory Číny s jejími sousedy a teď masové protesty v Hongkongu a riziko tvrdého zásahu proti nim –, ale trhy zůstávají živé, ne-li přímo rozparáděné.

Ceny ropy nestoupají, nýbrž klesají. Světové akciové trhy celkově dosahují nových vrcholů. Úvěrové trhy se vyznačují nízkými rozpětími, přičemž výnosy z dlouhodobých dluhopisů jdou ve většině vyspělých ekonomik dolů.

Ano, finanční trhy otřesených zemí – například ruské trhy s měnami, akciemi a dluhopisy – jsou negativně postiženy. Paušálnější nákaza globálních finančních trhů, již geopolitická pnutí obvykle rozsévají, se však neobjevila.

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