市场的理性自满

纽约—今年,全球金融市场出现了一个日益明显的悖论。尽管地缘政治风险四起——俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突、伊斯兰国崛起和中东日益动荡、中国与邻国的领土纠纷,再加上眼下的香港群众游行和镇压风险——但市场仍然欢腾不止。

事实上,石油价格一直在下跌而非上涨。总体而言,全球股票市场创出了新的高度。信用市场也表现出低利差,大部分发达经济体的长期债券收益率都有所下降。

诚然,麻烦国的金融市场——比如俄罗斯的货币、股票和债券市场——受到了消极影响。但地缘政治紧张局势以往常有的全球金融市场传染性并未出现。

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