Terceira fase da crise do Euro?

BERKELEY – as duas primeiras vertentes da crise do euro – uma crise bancária que resultou da alavancagem excessiva em ambos os sectores público e privado, seguida de uma acentuada queda na confiança nos governos da zona euro - têm sido abordadas com sucesso, ou pelo menos parte delas. Mas isso deixa o terceiro, mais longo, e mais perigoso factor subjacente à crise: o desequilíbrio estrutural entre o Norte e o Sul da zona euro.

Primeiro, as boas notícias: O receio de que os bancos da Europa poderiam desmoronar, com a fuga dos investidores em pânico pela sua segurança, produzindo uma grande depressão europeia, parece ter agora terminado. Da mesma forma, o medo, alimentado inteiramente pela política disfuncional da União Europeia, de que os governos da zona euro pudessem faltar aos compromissos – causando, desse modo, as mesmas consequências terríveis – começou a dissipar-se.

Se a Europa pode evitar uma depressão profunda, isso depende da forma como lidará com estes dois aspectos da crise. Mas se a Europa, como um todo, puder evitar décadas perdidas de crescimento económico, o que ainda persiste na balança, isso depende se os governos do Sul da Europa conseguem restaurar rapidamente a competitividade.

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