第三阶段欧元危机?

伯克利——我们已经<>成功渡过、或者至少在一定程度上成功渡过了欧元危机的前两个阶段——因为公共和私营部门过度杠杆化而导致的银行业危机,以及对欧元区政府信心的急剧丧失。但接下来我们就不得不面对此次危机中时间最长也最危险的第三项因素:那就是欧元区南部和北部国家的结构性失衡。

先来说说好消息:人们对欧洲银行陷入崩溃、惊慌失措的投资者拼命逃生而导致欧洲陷入萧条的恐惧现在似乎已经过去。同样,完全因欧盟政治运转不畅导致欧元区政府违约、进而造成同样可怕后果的担忧现在也似乎正渐渐散去。

欧洲能否避免深度衰退取决于它能否正确处理这两方面的危机。但欧洲的总体经济增长能否避免失去的十年仍然难以预料,因为这取决于南欧政府能否迅速恢复竞争力。

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