South Korean Unification Ministry meeting Getty Images

准备朝鲜重新统一

首尔—有如文火慢炖般的朝鲜核危机终于接近了沸点。上个月,这个隐秘王国发射了两枚能够袭击美国大城市的洲际弹道导弹。联合国安理会因此一致投票同意对朝鲜施加新的经济制裁——也是迄今为止最严厉的制裁,将至少让朝鲜出口收入减少三分之一。此后,朝鲜领导人金正恩和美国总统特朗普的口头威胁日益升级。

到了这个地步,不可能预料朝鲜半岛会发生什么。目前,整个国际社会确实能够做的,无非是继续利用经济制裁、军事压力和外交斡旋多管齐下,让金氏政权回到谈判桌前。但与此同时,我们应该考虑所有可能性并做好准备,不管是军事冲突还是南北朝鲜的和平统一。

最糟糕的灾难性情景当然是军事冲突。但这一结果的可能性事实上大大增加了,因为特朗普政府最近宣布正在评估军事选项,包括“预防性的战争”。

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