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敬爱的大姐的消失

Oct 25, 2012 Yuriko Koike

东京—朝鲜半岛一片乱象。12月，韩国将举行大选，选出李明博的继任者，目前有三人竞争这一宝座。与此同时，中国寻求抓住最近的韩日领土争端的机会想韩国政府示好。但是，也许重要的还要数朝鲜独裁统治的支柱之一目前已经开始崩塌——而与此同时，该国极有可能将再次面临人为的严重食物短缺。

9月25日，韩国媒体报道了已故“敬爱领袖”金正日之妹、朝鲜不到三十的领袖金正恩之姑金敬姬病重的传闻。这些消息并未得到证实，但金敬姬的名字已经不见于最高人民会议的代表名单中。在神秘的朝鲜，这似乎是不对劲的型号。据亚洲情报圈的消息，金敬姬可能在新加坡或中国治病。

其兄金正日去年逝世后，金敬姬经常陪伴侄子左右时差全国。她的突然消失引起了大量的猜测，“小将军”政权或已岌岌可危；尽管她酗酒的恶习早已人尽皆知，但她仍被广泛视为金正恩背后的权力靠山。

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roger cavazos Nov 1, 2012

Madame Koike-san: You're an amazing person and inspiration to many. From this short intro you may suspect I hold a different interpretation of what Dear Sister's disappearance may mean.

She has since returned to public view, but the questions you raised remain deeply important. One day, she will die. And then what?

She may be one of three legs of a power triumvirate( Kim Jong-Un, Jang Song-taek, and Kim Kyong-hui), but given the limited information publicly available, she's the least public of the three.

In such opaque societies, we have to infer a great many things. If she's the least publicized of the three, she's likely the least powerful of the three. She remains the only completely flesh and blood relative - and she was passed over for succession. Even Kim Pyong-il (half brother to both Kim Jong Il and Kim Kyong-hui) was passed over and left to remain a wandering Ambassador for life.

Even in a primogeniture influenced society, Kim Jong-il's first and second son were passed over.

When she goes, we don't know who will pick up her portfolios, but we can expect a short though undefined time of paralysis during the transition.

All of which goes toward a conclusion I think we both agree on, which is NOW is the time to start discussing these issues between the five parties.

There should be at some common understanding and communication protocols, etc about how to deal with her death. These modalities also provide at least an outline of a plan should the whole regime unravel.

I apologize for the length of the comment, but your article really catalyzed many thoughts.
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敬爱的大姐的消失

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