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朝鲜问题的唯一前进路径

发自首尔——朝鲜半岛是否即将爆发另一场毁灭性战争?这些问题近来已经成为多场对话中的热门话题了。

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各界对朝鲜核武计划的担忧早就不是一天两天了。美国先是在1994年试图用美朝框架协议来解决这个问题;但在双方随后的作为(以及不作为)让这一努力逐渐失效。到了2006年,金正日政权引爆了朝鲜的第一个核装置,也把这个问题一把推到了联合国安理会的议程上。

在接下来的十年中朝鲜进行了五次核试验——最近那次在今年9月——并展示了开发先进热核武器所需的精湛技术。而政权在金正恩领导下开始大力发展射程到达美国大陆本土的洲际弹道导弹时,形势进一步升级。而这一进展恰逢美国总统特朗普上台,而后者承诺将采用新手法来处理全球事务。

朝鲜明确表示致力于发展远程核打击能力,因为在该政权眼中核武器是保护自身不受进攻的唯一保险。金正恩认为一旦没有了核武器,他就会跟其他那些放弃追求核武器的领导人——比如伊拉克的萨达姆和利比亚的卡扎菲——是一个下场了。

在这一大背景下,美国关于实现朝鲜无核无洲际弹道导弹化的目标是无法通过外交手段实现的。而且无论如何特朗普已经宣布外交行动是“浪费时间”,并不怀好意地警告说“只有一种方法能奏效”(但他并未解释这是什么意思)。

既然美国和朝鲜都没有表现出什么谈判欲望,我们可以判定战争是不可避免的。然而朝鲜政权纵使四处挑衅,却不大可能首先发动全面的军事冲突,因为简直就是自取灭亡。与此同时美国手里也没有好的首先攻击选项。外科手术式打击可能听起来很靠谱,但也绝非万无一失。所有美军指挥官都明白如果没法一次过消灭朝鲜的所有核武器,就可能引发一场夺去数百万人生命的区域(甚至是核)战争。

在美国,那些鼓吹军事行动的人常常声称威慑对一个“非理性”政权是不起作用的。但也没有理由假设金正日会选择把自己逼上绝路。毕竟当毛泽东领导的中国在1960年代造出核武的时候其背后逻辑与今天的朝鲜大同小异,而当时也没人认为威慑会奏效。

然而,即使假设威慑——体现在特朗普声称美国将“完全摧毁”朝鲜的威胁上——确实有用,这样做也无法阻止一个拥有核武和洲际弹道导弹的朝鲜从根本上改变东北亚的战略演算。美国的核威慑力量首先是为了保护美国,而美国的“延伸威慑”会否继续保护美国的盟国(如韩国和日本)则不得而知。如果美国大陆本土成为朝鲜核打击的潜在目标,那么这一威慑的可靠度就得取决于美国是否愿意牺牲旧金山来拯救首尔或东京。

对美国核保护伞能否覆盖本地区的质疑可能导致韩国和日本决定发展自身的核选项。事实上韩国早在朝鲜之前就有了一个核武计划,只是在1975年签署《核不扩撒条约》后放弃了。而如今是否重启该计划已经成为首尔内部的一个辩论议题。朝鲜半岛核态势的进一步升级无疑非常危险的,尤其是金正恩政权会感觉自己受到的威胁比当前更大。

到目前为止,美国对朝鲜的做法是收紧制裁并将问题外包给中国。但中国虽然确实与朝鲜有着极为紧密的经济联系,不管中国是否愿意接下这个担子,它是否拥有改变金正恩政权行为的影响力还尚不明确。要取得成功可能需要实现一些近似于政权更替的变化。

完全依赖中国是不明智的。我们显然需要采取更着眼点更宏大的外交手段并从位处这一问题核心的根本点入手:即各方还未签署一项和平条约来结束1950~53年的朝鲜战争。

通过用正式的和平协议来取代64年前的停战协定,就可以为针对核武升级以及其他区域稳定威胁的更广泛讨论铺平道路。至少也可以打破今天的外交僵局,给予有关各方更多的理由以避免进一步的挑衅行为。

放大来说,新一轮外交还必须解决朝鲜的安全问题,为朝鲜营造出类似中国过去几十年那样的政治和经济发展空间。这一前景看似遥远;但如果半岛的安全形势得以缓解,那也是可以讨论的。

另一种选择是冒着爆发军事冲突或全面战争的风险继续坚持当前的路径。可就算能避免那些最坏的情况,该地区在今后几年中也不会有任何奔头,只能陷入持续动荡了。

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