Anniversary of Hiroshima and Nagasaki Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Die neue nukleare Gefahr des 21. Jahrhunderts

BERLIN – Als ein Kind, das im Jahre 1948 geboren wurde, wuchs ich gewissermaßen mit der „Normalität“ des Großrisikos eines nuklearen 3. Weltkriegs auf, zumindest aber mit der Gefahr einer völligen Zerstörung Deutschlands in Ost und West. Man nannte diese Epoche den „Kalten Krieg“ zwischen den beiden Supermächten US und Sowjetunion.

Heute ist dieses Großrisiko zwar nicht völlig verschwunden, doch ein nukleares Armageddon, ausgelöst von der Konfrontation globaler, nuklearer Weltmächte, ist gleichwohl erheblich unwahrscheinlicher geworden.

Wir haben es in der Gegenwart stattdessen mit einer neuen nuklearen Gefahr zu tun, nämlich dass zunehmend zahlreiche kleinere Atommächte entstehen in Staaten, deren Regimes instabil oder diktatorisch sind und für die das Überleben des Regimes oder begrenzte lokale oder regionale Macht- oder gar Expansionsinteressen im Zentrum ihrer Nuklearstrategie stehen. D. h. aber, dass die „Abschreckungsrationalität,“ wie sie sich zwischen den großen Atommächten entwickelt hat, erodiert, die Einsatzschwelle für Nuklearwaffen zu sinken droht und das Risiko ihrer Weiterverbreitung und damit auch das Risiko ihres Einsatzes zunehmen wird.

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