Anniversary of Hiroshima and Nagasaki Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

الخطر النووي الجديد

برلين ــ وُلِدت في عام 1948، وفي ذلك الحين، كان خطر اندلاع حرب عالمية ثالثة نووية جزءا حقيقيا للغاية من طفولتي. وظل ذلك التهديد ــ أو على الأقل التهديد المتمثل في دمار كل من ألمانيا الشرقية وألمانيا الغربية ــ قائما حتى نهاية الحرب الباردة وانهيار الاتحاد السوفييتي.

منذ ذلك الحين، تقلص إلى حد كبير خطر تسبب القوى العظمة المسلحة نوويا في إشعال حرب فَناء، حتى وإن لم يختف ذلك الخطر تماما. فاليوم، يتمثل الخطر الأعظم في محاولة عدد متزايد من الدول الأصغر حجما والتي تحكمها أنظمة غير مستقرة أو دكتاتورية الحصول على أسلحة نووية. فبتحولها إلى قوى نووية، تستطيع مثل هذه الأنظمة ضمان بقائها، وتعزيز مصالحها الجيوسياسية المحلية أو الإقليمية، بل وحتى ملاحقة أجندة توسعية.

في هذه البيئة الجديدة، تآكلت "عقلانية الردع" التي حافظت عليها الولايات المتحدة والاتحاد السوفييتي خلال الحرب الباردة. والآن، إذا تزايد الانتشار النووي، فمن المرجح أن تنخفض عتبة استخدام الأسلحة النووية.

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