North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un looking at a metal casing with two bulges at an undisclosed location STR/AFP/Getty Images

如何与朝鲜谈判

首尔—朝鲜领导人金正恩眼看马上就要与美国总统特朗普达成历史性协议,这份协议将让他的国家和缅甸和越南一样,减少对中国的依赖,与西方走得更近。但是,尽管金正恩宣布将停止核核远程弹道导弹试射、不再要求美军撤出韩国,他不可能放弃朝鲜好不容易获得核武器,除非达成可信的全面协定。

朝鲜一共进行了六次核试验——和印度一样,后者可怕的核武实力已经毋庸置疑。金正恩效仿1998年的印度宣布停止核试验——印度的做法让它得以与美国进行谈判,美国最终立法承认了印度核武器——这暗示他寻求国际接受朝鲜的核地位。

当然,美印核协议之所以成为可能,是迫于后冷战时代战略压力,这样的环境在朝鲜半岛是不具备的。尽管如此,如果特朗普和金正恩的峰会要想取得持续的效果,断不能仅仅试图破事朝鲜去核化、而要寻求让朝鲜向世界敞开国门的更广泛的战略协议。

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