Kim Won-Jin/AFP/Getty Images

Цейтнот в Северной Корее

НЬЮ-ЙОРК – Многие сейчас согласны с тем, что первый настоящий кризис президента Дональда Трампа будет связан с Северной Кореей, а если точнее, со способность этой страны разместить ядерные боеголовки на одной или нескольких баллистических ракетах с достаточной дальностью и точностью, чтобы достичь континентальной территории США. Этому кризису могут способствовать и другие факторы: значительное увеличение количества ядерных боеголовок, созданных Северной Кореей; свидетельства продажи этой страной ядерных материалов группировкам террористов; применение обычных вооруженных сил против Южной Кореи и размещённых там войск США.

Время терять нельзя. Любое из подобных событий может произойти в течение нескольких месяцев или – максимум – нескольких лет. Начиная с 1990-х годов, подходом всех администраций США к Северной Корее являлось стратегическое терпение, но этот подход себя исчерпал.

Один из вариантов – просто принять как неизбежное продолжающийся рост количества и повышение качества северокорейских ядерных и ракетных арсеналов. В этом случае США, Южной Корее и Японии придётся прибегнуть к комбинации противоракетной обороны с ядерным сдерживанием.

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