Kim Won-Jin/AFP/Getty Images

Na Coreia do Norte o tempo escasseia

NOVA IORQUE – Existe um consenso crescente de que a primeira crise verdadeira da presidência de Donald Trump poderia envolver a Coreia do Norte e, mais especificamente, a sua capacidade de colocar uma ogiva nuclear num ou mais mísseis balísticos com alcance e precisão suficientes para atingir os EUA. Esta crise poderia igualmente ter outra origem: um grande aumento do número de ogivas nucleares produzidas pela Coreia do Norte, o que é prova de que vende materiais nucleares a grupos terroristas, ou ainda a utilização das suas forças militares convencionais contra as forças da Coreia do Sul ou dos EUA ali estacionadas.

Não há tempo a perder: qualquer um destes acontecimentos pode ocorrer nos próximos meses ou anos. A paciência estratégica — a abordagem em relação à Coreia do Norte que caracterizou vários governos norte-americanos desde o início da década de 1990 — chegou ao fim.

Uma das estratégias possíveis consistiria em aceitar simplesmente como inevitável o aumento contínuo da quantidade e da qualidade do armamento nuclear e dos mísseis da Coreia do Norte. Os EUA, a Coreia do Sul e o Japão apoiar-se-iam numa combinação de defesa balística e de dissuasão.

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