Kim Won-Jin/AFP/Getty Images

Il tempo sta scadendo nella Corea del Nord

NEW YORK – Si è sempre più d’accordo sul fatto che la prima vera crisi che la presidenza di Donald Trump si troverà ad affrontare potrebbe coinvolgere la Corea del Nord e, nello specifico, la sua capacità di inserire una testata nucleare in uno o più missili balistici con una gittata e precisione sufficiente da raggiungere gli Stati Uniti. Una possibile crisi potrebbe derivare anche da altri fattori, ovvero da un aumento sostanziale del numero di testate nucleari prodotte dalla Corea del Nord, da eventuali prove che il paese sta vendendo materiali nucleari a gruppi terroristici, oppure dall’uso delle forze militari contro la Corea del Sud o contro le forze statunitensi posizionate nella regione.

Alla luce di ciò non c’è molto tempo da perdere in quanto qualsiasi sviluppo potrebbe verificarsi nel corso di pochi mesi o, al più tardi, di anni. Il tempo della pazienza strategica, ovvero l’approccio che ha caratterizzato le diverse amministrazioni statunitensi sin dall’inizio degli anni ’90 nei confronti della Corea del Nord, è ormai finito.

Un’opzione sarebbe semplicemente quella di accettare come inevitabile il continuo aumento in termini di quantità e qualità del potenziale missilistico e nucleare della Corea del Nord. In questo caso gli Stati Uniti, la Corea del Nord e il Giappone ricadrebbero in una politica di difesa missilistica e di deterrenza.

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