North Korea’s Missile Tantrum

Once again, tension is rising across Asia over North Korea’s missile program, as the North’s government prepares to launch a “satellite” sometime between April 4 and 8. The question for the world now is not whether the North Korean regime will launch its missile, but what happens afterward.

SEOUL – Once again, tension is rising across Asia over North Korea’s missile program. Unlike its previous “surprise” missile launches, North Korea’s government this time notified international agencies in advance that it will launch a “satellite” sometime between April 4 and 8. The question for the world now is not whether the North Korean regime will launch its missile, but what happens afterward.

The United States, Japan, and South Korea have already publicly condemned the launch as a “provocative act” and a violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1718, adopted in October 2006, five days after North Korea conducted a nuclear weapons test.

But, instead of hot rhetoric, what is needed now is a cool-headed assessment of the military implications of the missile launch. If Japan, the US, and others attempt to intercept or counter the missile, military tension – even possible combat – is likely to ensue. How to prevent unnecessary military measures and countermeasures is the most immediate concern for the region’s governments. Above all, the ongoing six-party talks (China, the US, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and North Korea) that have sought to bring North Korea’s nuclear program to an end must not become a casualty of the missile launch.

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