Comment réagir face au caprice nucléaire de la Corée du Nord

SEOUL – Une fois de plus, le programme de lancement de missiles de la Corée du Nord fait monter la tension en Asie. Contrairement aux précédents "lancements-surprise" auquel il a procédé, cette fois le gouvernement nord-coréen a informé au préalable les agences internationales du lancement d'un "satellite" entre le 4 et le 8 avril. La question qui se pose maintenant n'est pas de savoir si le régime de Corée du Nord va lancer son missile, mais ce qui arrivera ensuite.

Les USA, le Japon et la Corée du Sud ont déjà condamné publiquement ce lancement comme un "acte de provocation" et une violation de la résolution 1718 du Conseil de sécurité adoptée en octobre 2006, cinq jours après l'essai nucléaire auquel a procédé la Corée du Nord.

Mais plutôt qu'une rhétorique enflammée, il faut maintenant une évaluation dépassionnée des implications militaires du lancement de missile. Si le Japon, les USA et d'autres tentent d'intercepter le missile ou d'entraîner son échec, cela débouchera probablement sur une tension militaire – et peut-être même un affrontement. Les gouvernements de la région ont pour préoccupation immédiate d'éviter des mesures militaires guère souhaitables et la réaction qui s'en suivrait. Il faut surtout éviter que les négociations à six (Chine, USA, Japon, Russie, Corée du Sud et Corée du Nord) qui ont pour objectif la fin du programme nucléaire nord-coréen ne pâtissent du lancement de missile.

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