Kim Jong Un and soldiers STR/AFP/Getty Images

核历史会在朝鲜重复吗?

华盛顿—中国国家主席习近平将与美国总统特朗普在特朗普的佛罗里达州豪华大宅马拉拉歌庄园举行第一次峰会。在他们的讨论当中,至少有一部分会关注全球最贫穷的地方之一:朝鲜。尽管经历了二十多年启启停停的谈判,朝鲜的核武器计划终究将世界推向了一个像极了西方六十年前曾经面临过的战略分水岭——当时的美国和苏联在欧洲彼此对峙。

在二十世纪,美国及其盟友成功地度过了欧洲的挑战,而没有引发战争。但要在今时今日的东亚也取得类似的成功,特朗普必须说服习近平采取不同的对朝政策。

在二战后的美苏对峙中,双方都有威慑对方不敢进攻的办法。苏联拥有——或被广泛相信拥有——非核力量优势,克里姆林可以利用这一优势征服西欧。美国则垄断了核武器,可以从欧洲发射,打击苏联本土。

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