rally in pyongyang Kim Won-jin/AFP/Getty Images

La propuesta china de “doble suspensión”, una treta

CLAREMONT, CALIFORNIA – El dictador norcoreano Kim Jong-un dice que Estados Unidos pagará “mil veces por los crímenes atroces” que cometió contra su país. El presidente estadounidense Donald Trump advierte a Corea del Norte que sufrirá “fuego y furia como el mundo nunca ha visto”. Kim amenaza con lanzar cuatro misiles al territorio estadounidense de Guam. Trump promete que si Kim sigue con sus amenazas o cumple una sola de ellas, “lo va a lamentar” y “pronto”.

Mientras continúa esta escalada en un intercambio inédito de retórica incendiaria y amenazas militares indisimuladas entre los líderes de dos países con armas nucleares, la gente sensata en todo el mundo se pregunta si hay una manera pacífica de salir de esta crisis en desarrollo. Para algunos la respuesta consistiría en una “doble suspensión”: que Corea del Norte detenga sus actividades nucleares y misilísticas a cambio de que Estados Unidos y Corea del Sur hagan lo propio con sus ejercicios militares conjuntos.

A primera vista, esta opción (propuesta al principio por China, y luego avalada por Rusia) parece hallar el justo medio. Privada de probar tecnologías nucleares y misilísticas, Corea del Norte se quedará con lo que ya tiene: en vez de un arsenal potente, con capacidad creíble de atacar objetivos remotos, un arsenal poco fiable, posiblemente sin ojivas nucleares miniaturizadas. A cambio de lograr ese objetivo, que Estados Unidos suspenda los ejercicios militares conjuntos con Corea del Sur parece un precio razonable, ya que apenas afectaría su aplastante superioridad militar.

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