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朝鲜真正的战略

丹佛—朝鲜追求核武器常常被描述为对其国家安全和政权生存的战略要务的“理性”反应。毕竟,朝鲜被比它更大、怀有敌意的国家所环绕,也没有能够依赖的盟友为其提供防务。这样看来,金正日想要避免伊拉克的萨达姆和利比亚的卡扎菲的覆辙相当合理,萨达姆和卡扎菲当初要是已经获得了可发射的核武器的话,现在肯定还活着掌权。

事实上,朝鲜对核武器的渴望更多地源自攻击性,而不是务实性。朝鲜最大的目标就是要让美国与其韩国盟友“分手”——这样,朝鲜半岛就可以按照金正恩的想法实现统一。换句话说,朝鲜想要的不仅仅是自卫,还想为自身的入侵创造条件。

当然,这一情景从诸多角度看都纯属幻想。但身为今天的朝鲜人,未必接受真实的世界状况。朝鲜宣传机器一直在反复强调,朝鲜半岛只有一个民族,共用一种语言和一个文化,朝鲜半岛是不可分割的——除非美国这样的局外人插手。根据这一逻辑,朝鲜需要设法阻止局外人干预半岛事物。

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