Kim Jong Un North Korea Commemoration Kcna/ZumaPress

Fin de partie en Corée du Nord

DENVER – Les négociateurs des deux Corées semblent avoir résolu la crise de ce mois-ci, où l'utilisation de haut-parleurs par la Corée du Sud pour diffuser des messages à travers la zone démilitarisée avait déclenché des menaces de guerre du Nord. Voilà de bonnes nouvelles pour la région et pour le monde : parmi les craintes de plus en plus nombreuses au sujet de l'économie chinoise, il y a déjà bien des raisons de s'inquiéter des événements en Asie du Nord-Est. Néanmoins l'incertitude fondamentale au sujet de l'avenir de la Corée du Nord sous Kim Jong-un persiste et ce dernier épisode est une occasion importante d'évaluer sa conduite.

Le comportement de Kim était essentiellement conforme à celui de son père Kim Jong-il et de grand-père Kim Il-sung : créer une crise sans raison apparente et s'attendre à une récompense pour y mettre fin. Mais dans la dernière crise, Kim a peu gagné. La Corée du Nord n'a pas reçu de nouvelles offres de nourriture, aucune aide économique ou financière, aucune aide pour l'énergie ou l'agriculture, aucunes paroles chaleureuses de la Chine. En effet, il est difficile de saisir pour quelles raisons Kim a initié cette crise.

Ce qui semble effectivement avoir bénéficié à Kim, c'est l'accord de la Corée du Sud d'interrompre ses émissions, qui comprenaient quelques critiques personnelles très révélatrices à son égard. Et cela aurait pu être suffisant.

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