Military museum in Pyongyong with female guide.

朝鲜赫尔辛基进程?

首尔—上个月,朝鲜和韩国勉强避免了灾难性军事冲突。在经过40小时的紧张谈判后,韩国同意停止在两国之间的非军事区进行广播喊话,作为交换,朝鲜对三周前韩国士兵因在非军事区踩雷丧生表示“遗憾”。

在这场危机中,朝鲜的反应依然是为人所熟知的好斗和咄咄逼人,但也体现出一些颇为有趣的新动向。理解这些新发展趋势有助于获得足够动力在七年多的冲突后启动真正的朝韩合作、帮助引导朝鲜半岛走向更和平、更安全的未来。

第一个发展趋势是韩国领导层对来自朝鲜的挑衅反应更加坚决了。2010年,韩国民众尖锐地批评了韩军没有在朝鲜击沉韩国军舰天安号(船上有100多名船员)和前一年朝鲜炮击延坪岛后立即反击。相反,在最近的地雷爆炸事件发生后,韩国总统朴槿惠毫不退缩地要求否认埋设地雷的朝鲜道歉。她的支持率立刻从前一个月的34%左右上升到50%。

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