即将来临的日本政坛地震

大阪—日本正面临自二战以来最严重的内忧外患。但日本公众对此似乎漠不关心。该国两大主要政党——执政党民主党和自民党最近选出了各自的党首,但普通日本群众对此一哂了之。但公众对日本的政治制度的冷漠态度不会维持太久。

民主党2009年9月第一次上台执政,他们有一个雄心勃勃的计划,要进行全面的政治改革、不增税,并对美日同盟采取更自由放任的态度。但是,该党在各个决策层面都缺乏经验和能力——2011年3月11日大地震所造成的前所未有的破坏更是加剧了民主党这方面的缺陷——因此第一届和第二届民主党政府(分别以鸠山由纪夫和菅直人为首相)都在没有完成承诺的情况下下了台。结果,以永远的叛逆者小泽一郎为首的数十名立法委员脱离民主党,成立了新的无足轻重的反对党。

民主党重新选举了现任首相野田佳彦为党首,但他的公众支持度很低。民主党在众议院和参议员都只占微弱优势(参议院还通过了针对野田佳彦的谴责议案),无法靠自己的力量通过运转政府所必须的财政和其他立法。结果,野田佳彦只能疲于应付——而且这也得通过与主要反对党形成妥协以解散众议院来实现。尽管野田佳彦并没有明说什么时候会这样做,但民主党政府的末日已经指日可待了。

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