Sin guerras no hay hambre

ESTOCOLMO: Hace doscientos años, en su ensayo “La paz perpetua”, Emmanuel Kant imaginó una “unión de repúblicas liberales.” Sin embargo, en 1795 las repúblicas liberales eran ideas abstractas. No obstante, Kant previó nuestra realidad actual caracterizada por democracias liberales florecientes. Más aún, la idea de Kant sobre la paz perpetua parece menos descabellada porque ninguna democracia le ha declarado la guerra a otra. En efecto, esa “ausencia de la guerra entre las democracias” es probablemente lo más cerca que estaremos de una ley diplomática inmutable.

Los académicos han demostrado que eso es verdad. El profesor R.J. Rummel de la Universidad de Hawaii investigó 353 parejas de combatientes entre 1816 y 1991. En 155 casos, las democracias lucharon contra enemigos no democráticos, mientras que 198 fueron encuentros entre dictaduras. No encontró ningún ejemplo de democracias luchando contra democracias. Algunos pedantes afirman que hay excepciones. Sin embargo, si estudiamos los detalles, queda claro que el conflicto en cuestión o fue algún tipo de guerra civil, o involucró a un participante que no era una democracia real (Alemania en 1914), o bien se trató de algún enfrentamiento cuyas bajas fueron tan escasas que ni siquiera se le puede llamar guerra.

En esto no hay errores estadísticos o coincidencias afortunadas. En una democracia sería casi imposible obtener el apoyo popular suficiente para una confrontación militar con otra democracia. Los pueblos democráticos se conocen y se tienen confianza. Para los gobiernos democráticos lo natural es la negociación.

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