Žádná sametová transformace

CAMBRIDGE: Revoluce, které probíhají daleko, je snadné idealizovat. Zatímco celý Západ oslavuje desáté výročí konce komunismu jako válku vyhranou bez jediného výstřelu, v celém bývalém sovětském bloku se radost naopak mísí s tvrdou zkušeností posledních deseti let změn.

Některé skutečnosti se daly předpokládat: Maďarsko je na tom lépe než jiné země, Estonsko předběhlo celý bývalý Sovětský svaz, jižní Evropa zápasí s problémy. Nemálo je však i překvapení: Polsko, všemi v roce 1989 považované za outsidera, se stalo hybnou silou regionu. Česká republika, zpočátku jasný favorit, vyrazila po sametové revoluci směrem k málo průhledným reformám.

Rusko je ovšem největší hádankou. Vyhnulo se propasti, jíž svorně předvídali dnes už nezaměstnaní „kremlologové“. Rusko odmítlo stát se „normální“ zemí. Já osobně jsem tehdy počítal, že kolaps komunismu povede k rychlejšímu omlazení společnosti, ačkoli jsem od začátku tvrdil, že projít cestou, na jejímž počátku Rusko stojí, bude obrovská dřina, která se neobejde bez podstatné finanční pomoci ze Západu.

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