No hay tiempo para la complacencia

LONDRES – Después de años de rápido crecimiento, los países de Europa del este han resultado especialmente afectados por la crisis financiera mundial. Algunos requirieron miles de millones de dólares de apoyo internacional. Incluso aquellos países que estaban mejor preparados tuvieron que tomar conciencia desafortunadamente de los efectos secundarios de la crisis: los mercados de exportaciones colapsaron, los precios de las materias primas cayeron y los mercados de crédito se achicaron.

En muchos países, la producción económica se hundió estrepitosamente, mucho más que en Europa occidental. Esta caída parece haberse detenido, y los datos más recientes indican que tal vez ya se haya tocado fondo.

Sin embargo, resulta prematuro declarar que la crisis terminó, porque gran parte del impacto y muchas de las consecuencias de la crisis todavía no se han sentido. Debemos anticipar un inmenso incremento de las quiebras -así como mercados de crédito deteriorados y un alto nivel de desempleo-. Esto, a su vez, depositará una carga en los presupuestos nacionales y los sistemas bancarios -y les planteará un desafío a los políticos de la región-. Una cantidad de países ya se han visto obligados a implementar drásticos recortes presupuestarios, que han tenido repercusiones en los niveles de vida.

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