Keine Zeit für Selbstgefälligkeit

LONDON – Nach Jahren starken Wirtschaftswachstums sind die Länder Osteuropas besonders hart von der Finanzkrise betroffen. Einige benötigten internationale Hilfe in Milliarden Dollar-Höhe. Auch den Ländern, die besser gerüstet waren, wurden die Nachwirkungen der Krise schmerzlich bewusst: Exportmärkte kollabierten, Rohstoffpreise sanken und Kreditmärkte froren ein.

In vielen Ländern ist die Wirtschaftsleistung dramatisch gesunken, mehr als in Westeuropa. Dieser Einbruch scheint gestoppt zu sein, jüngste Daten deuten an, dass die Talsohle erreicht ist.

Aber es ist noch verfrüht, das Ende der Krise auszurufen, weil ein großer Teil der Auswirkungen und viele Konsequenzen noch zu spüren sein werden. Wir müssen mit einem enormen Zuwachs an Insolvenzen rechnen – wie auch mit beeinträchtigten Kreditmärkten und einer hohen Arbeitslosenquote. Das wird wiederum die Haushalte und Bankensysteme der Länder belasten und eine Herausforderung für Politiker in der ganzen Region sein. Eine Reihe von Ländern musste bereits drastische Haushaltskürzungen vornehmen, was sich nachteilig auf den Lebensstandard auswirken wird.

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