尚不是自满之时

发自伦敦——在数年的迅速增长之后,东欧国家在最近的国际金融危机中遭受了尤其严重的挫折。其中一些国家需要几十亿美元国际支援来渡过难关。而即便是那些相对准备较充分的国家都痛苦地感受到了一连串后危机效应:出口市场严重萎缩,商品价格下滑,以及信贷市场失灵。

许多东欧国家都出现的经济大幅下滑现象甚至比起西欧更为严重。但在目前来说下滑的趋势似乎已经停止,而最新的数据更显示经济可能已经触底。

但在此时宣布危机结束依然为时尚早,因为危机的许多影响及其诸多后续效应依然未被人们所感知。我们必须考虑到企业破产的大幅度增加,而受损的信用市场和高失业率也同样不容乐观。上述现象将反过来对国家预算和银行体系造成负担——这将考验本地区政治家的应对能力。很多国家已经被迫大幅度削减预算开支,并随之对民众生活水平造成了冲击。

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