Paul Lachine

Na obchodní válku není vhodná chvíle

NEW YORK – Bitva se Spojenými státy nad čínským směnným kurzem pokračuje.Když Velká hospodářská recese začala, řada lidí se obávala, že vystrčí růžky protekcionismus.Pravda, lídři skupiny G20 slibovali, že si berou k srdci ponaučení z Velké hospodářské krize.Jenže 17 z dvaceti členů skupiny zavedlo ochranářská opatření už během několika měsíců po prvním summitu v listopadu 2008.Nejvíc pozornosti se dostalo ustanovení stimulačního balíčku USA, které nabádá k nákupům amerického zboží.Přesto se protekcionismus podařilo zadržet, zčásti díky Světové obchodní organizaci.

Při pokračující hospodářské ochablosti ve vyspělých ekonomikách hrozí nová vlna protekcionismu.Například v Americe se víc než jednomu ze šesti zájemců o práci na plný úvazek nedaří najít místo.

Šlo o jedno z rizik souvisejících s nedostatečným americkým stimulem, který byl nastaven tak, aby uklidňoval kongresmany, a zároveň měl oživit ekonomiku.Za bobtnajících schodků se druhý stimul zdá nepravděpodobný a vzhledem k tomu, že měnová politika se dotýká svých mezí a inflační jestřábi jsou drženi v šachu jen s obtížemi, ani z této strany nelze pomoc očekávat.Na přední místo se tedy dostává protekcionismus.

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