Paul Lachine

لا وقت لحرب تجارية

نيويوركـ ما تزال الحرب التي تخوضها الولايات المتحدة حول سعر صرف العملة الصينية مستمرة. حين بدأ الركود العظيم (الأزمة المالية الاقتصادية الأخيرة) كان أخشى ما يخشاه العديد من الناس أن تعود نزعة الحماية لتطل علينا بوجهها القبيح. صحيح أن زعماء مجموعة العشرين أكَّدوا لنا أنهم استوعبوا دروس أزمة الكساد الأعظم (في ثلاثينيات القرن العشرين)، ولكن سبع عشرة دولة من بلدان مجموعة العشرين اتخذت إجراءات الحماية بعد بضعة أشهر من انعقاد أول قمة في نوفمبر/تشرين الثاني 2008. واسترعى شرط "اشتروا أميركا" الوارد في مشروع قانون التحفيز بالولايات المتحدة القدر الأعظم من الانتباه. ورغم ذلك فقد تم احتواء نزعة الحماية، وهو ما يرجع جزئياً إلى الجهود التي بذلتها منظمة التجارة العالمية.

إن استمرار الضعف الاقتصادي في البلدان المتقدمة اقتصادياً يهدد بنشوء جولة جديدة من الحماية. ففي أميركا، على سبيل المثال، يعجز أكثر من واحد من كل ستة عمال راغبين في الحصول على عمل بدوام كامل عن تحقيق هذه الغاية.

وكان هذا من بين المخاطر المرتبطة بحزمة التحفيز الأميركية غير الكافية، والتي كانت مصممة لاسترضاء أعضاء الكونجرس بقدر ما كانت مصممة لإنعاش الاقتصاد. ومع ارتفاع العجز إلى مستويات هائلة أصبح من غير المرجح تنفيذ خطة تحفيز ثانية، وبلوغ السياسة النقدية أقصى مداها فضلاً عنالعجز عن تحجيم صقور التضخم، فقد بات الأمل ضعيفاً في الحصول على المساعدة من تلك الدائرة أيضاً. لذا فقد أصبحت نزعة الحماية في الصدارة.

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