Adieu les miracles économiques !

CAMBRIDGE – Il y a un an, les analystes étaient d'un optimisme à tout crin quant aux perspectives de croissance des pays en développement. S'ils s'attendaient dans le meilleur des cas à une croissance faible aux USA et en Europe, ils étaient persuadés que les pays émergents allaient continuer sur leur lancée et maintenir leurs taux de croissance de la décennie qui a précédé la crise financière - devenant ainsi les locomotives de l'économie mondiale.

Les économistes du Citigroup par exemple ont affirmé sans la moindre hésitation que les circonstances n'ont jamais été aussi favorables à une croissance durable à travers le monde et ont prévu une croissance rapide de la production mondiale jusqu'en 2050, avec en tête les pays en développement d'Asie et d'Afrique. La firme PwC spécialisée dans le conseil en expertise comptable et le consulting prévoyait que les taux de croissance du PIB par habitant de la Chine, de l'Inde et du Nigéria se maintiendraient au-dessus de  4,5% jusqu'au milieu du siècle. Une autre firme de consulting, McKinsey, a surnommé l'Afrique, synonyme depuis longtemps de l'échec économique, "terre des lions qui avancent".

Aujourd'hui, la tonalité de ces déclarations n'est plus du tout la même en raison de ce que le magazine The Economist appelle "Le grand ralentissement". Les chiffres récents concernant la Chine, l'Inde, le Brésil et la Turquie montrent que ces pays connaissent leur croissance la plus faible depuis plusieurs années. L'optimisme a fait place au doute.

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