AFP/ Stringer

¿Es China el próximo Japón?

NEW HAVEN – A pesar de que se profundizan las preocupaciones sobre la economía de China, el país no se encamina hacia “décadas perdidas” de estancamiento al estilo japonés. Y, sin embargo, una ambigüedad preocupante nubla este veredicto. El destino de Japón fue sellado por su renuencia a abandonar un modelo de crecimiento disfuncional. Si bien China se distingue de Japón por haber adoptado el reequilibrio estructural, este país está esforzándose por poner en práctica dicha estrategia. A menos que los esfuerzos de China tengan éxito, los resultados podrían ser similares.

La misma conclusión se desprende de un seminario sobre “Las lecciones de Japón” que he enseñado en Yale durante los últimos seis años. El curso es principalmente un curso sobre macroeconomía forense – en el curso se destilan lecciones clave sobre la subida y la caída de la economía japonesa moderna y luego se averigua la relevancia de dichas lecciones para otras economías importantes.

El seminario culmina con trabajos de investigación realizados por los estudiantes, trabajos que están dirigidos a determinar qué países serían candidatos a ser el próximo Japón. Tan recientemente como el año 2012, Estados Unidos se presentaba como la opción favorita, ya que este país luchaba por recuperar su posición tras la gran Crisis Financiera del año 2008. No es sorprendente que, al llegar el año 2013, el enfoque se desplazara a la Europa maltratada por la crisis. Pero este año, más de la mitad de los estudiantes en el seminario (13 de 23) eligieron examinar si China podría ser el próximo Japón.

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