AFP/ Stringer

L'économie chinoise sur la voie du Japon ?

NEW HAVEN – Malgré les préoccupations croissantes que soulève l'économie de la Chine, cette dernière ne devrait pas connaître de décennie perdue à l'image de la longue phase de stagnation du Japon. Pourtant une question se pose. La trajectoire économique du Japon tient à sa réticence à renoncer à un modèle de croissance dysfonctionnel. La Chine se distingue du Japon par sa stratégie de rééquilibrage structurel, mais elle a de la difficulté à l'appliquer. Si elle n'y parvient pas, elle pourrait suivre la même voie que le Japon.

Le cours sur "les leçons du Japon" que je donne depuis 6 ans à l'université de Yale aboutit à la même conclusion. Il vise en priorité à extraire les leçons clés de la montée et de la chute de l'économie du Japon moderne et à voir dans quelle mesure elles peuvent s'appliquer aux autres grandes économies.

Cet enseignement culmine par un travail de recherche des étudiants pour déterminer quels sont les pays qui pourraient suivre le Japon. En 2012 ils citaient en premier les USA qui essayaient de relancer leur économie après la Grande crise financière de 2008. Il n'est guère surprenant qu'en 2013 ce soit l'Europe accablée par les crises qui les ait remplacés. Mais cette année, plus de la moitié des étudiants (13 sur 23) ont choisi d'examiner le cas de la Chine en se demandant si elle risquait de suivre les traces du Japon.

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